STOCA (Study of cargo flows in the Gulf of Finland in emergency situations) research project, which started in the beginning of 2009, has analysed and simulated the effects of different crisis situations on transportation routes in Finland and Estonia. The leading partner in the project is the Kotka Maritime Research Centre, while the main financier is the European Regional Development Fund (Interreg IV A, Finnish-Estonia subprogram). The objective of Lappeenranta University of Technology’s Kouvola Research Unit was to explore the identified risks’ effects on the functionality of the transportation routes by using system dynamics simulation as one work package of this project.
Based on the interviews, oil and chemical transport forms a specific risk in the Gulf of Finland region both in sea as well as land (mainly railway) transport. According to simulation results, in the case that sea ports need to be closed, the usability of alternative transportation routes is initially determined by replacing sea ports’ handling capacity. If the crisis continues, transporting cargo from the sea port further towards inland locations becomes more significant and contemporary problem. In container transport concentration of handling capacity increases the vulnerability of the transportation system as the possibility to reroute containers is being reduced. In this case securing sufficient container flow depends on the availability of platforms used in hinterlands transports. Based on the research findings, collaboration between Finland and Estonia in handling disturbances of container flows is essential, although rerouting containers especially from Tallinn to Finland can be managed due to greater annual handling volumes of the Finnish sea ports. In Finland the question is more connected to whether other sea ports are able to handle the additional volumes, if a large scale sea port (e.g. Kotka or Helsinki) is going to malfunction.
In Finland, and especially in Estonia, considerable volume of oil and chemicals are transported on rails. In oil transportation disruptions in rail traffic (e.g. wagon leakage) can be prepared for by utilizing inventories located in sea ports. According to the simulations a relatively long time is required for the recovery to a normal situation in deliveries after the local crisis is over. This is the case particularly in Finland. In Estonia significant transit oil inventories located in sea ports facilitate smoother management of disruptions; although warehousing capacity is fully loaded with oil, sea ports are able to operate even weeks without significant interruptions.
The transportation routes’ dependence on sea ports cannot be reduced in the short term; however, in a longer term a railway tunnel between Finland and Estonia would reduce the effects of crisis situations. Although currently the tunnel might not seem profitable as an individual investment, but from the perspective of the Finnish economy (e.g. oil disasters, volcano eruptions and strikes) the situation might be totally different.
Further information:
Juha Saranen, post doctoral researcher, industrial management, LUT Kouvola, phone: 040 536 2281
Olli-Pekka Hilmola, professor, industrial management, LUT Kouvola, phone: 040 761 4307
Juha Heijari, Merikotka, project manager, phone: 044 522 2809
The results are presented in a report which is available at:
http://www.kouvola.lut.fi/files/download/Research_Report_223.pdf
The home pages of the project can be found at:
http://www.merikotka.fi/stoca/
http://www.stoca-simulation.fi/