The intensification of military conflict is leading to sharp increases in military and defence spending, particularly among the countries whose governments perceive a security risk. Notwithstanding different ways of calculating changes in defence expenditure, it has increased steeply following the shift to militarisation of geo-political conflict in a short period of time. Increases have increased 100% or more, in countries whose governments perceive a risk as a result of a neighbouring military conflict, especially Poland but also the Nordics. As public budgets are constrained, the welfare state is a likely candidate for savings, as it represents ca. 20–35% of public expenditure in advanced economies. The 2% NATO target has been reached, although some countries, like Italy, remain below the target. Yet, in Finland, but also Denmark, the commitment to military and defence expenditure is high and increasing. Given this geo-political, context, it is crucial to explore public opinion concerning an increase in military expenditure, pitted against selected welfare priorities.
The presentation draws upon freshly collected original public opinion data fielded in 10 countries – SCOaPP - to examine the role of different individual and contextual factors that shape the political divides on this trade-off. The data and analyses reveal, firstly, widespread opposition to welfare retrenchment for funding military spending. Secondly, and perhaps unsurprisingly, opposition to welfare cuts decreases steadily from the radical left to the right and thirdly, individuals in countries with a stronger ex-ante military presence, such as Finland, are more inclined to support welfare cuts, while individuals in countries with recent military expenditure increases, oppose such cuts. The consequences could be a new cleavage in Europe between higher and lower spenders, something which has come up in NATO.
Speaker: Professor Caroline de la Porte – Department of International Economics, Government and Business, Copenhagen Business School.
The talk is open to all including the public, welcome!